AbstractUsing oil futures, we examine expectation formation and how it alters the macroeconomic transmission of shocks. Our empirical framework, where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements, successfully replicates the fluctuation…
AbstractWe build a model of bond yields in an economy with secular changes to inflation, real rate, and output growth. Long-run restrictions identify nominal shocks that do not influence the long-run real rate and output growth. Before the anchoring of…
AbstractI combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across …
AbstractRecent work stresses a potentially important relation between credit supply shocks and aggregate TFP based on factor misallocation. I take three steps to examine this relation. First, using state-of-the-art credit supply shock and aggregate TFP…
AbstractWe study the local effects of new market-rate housing in low-income areas using microdata on large apartment buildings, rents, and migration. New buildings decrease rents in nearby units by about 6% relative to units slightly farther away or ne…
AbstractThis paper documents gender differences in the career paths of novice politicians. Using trajectories of over 11,000 candidates for California local offices and a regression discontinuity approach, I investigate the persistence of candidates af…
AbstractA common approach to estimation of dynamic economic models is to calibrate a subset of model parameters and keep them fixed when estimating the remaining parameters. Calibrated parameters likely affect conclusions based on the model, but estima…
AbstractThis paper develops and estimates a New Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous technology. It shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles that conventional NK models face: the inflation persistence, disinflation…
AbstractWe examine price negotiation in the payment card industry by exploiting a unique merchant-, industry-, and city-level data set. Motivated by the substantial variation in acquirer fees and heterogeneous merchant card transactions, we use Nash ba…
AbstractWe present novel insights on the role of international trade following unanticipated fiscal changes in a flexible exchange rate environment. We show analytically that fiscal multipliers can be larger in economies more open to trade, even when f…